EMES Colloquium Speaker: Dr. Elliott Hazen

Gussenhoven Speaker

Scales of whales: Ecological nowcasts, forecasts & projections for use in management

We have a skillful suite of prediction systems for assessing the weather, forecasting storm tracks, and predicting long-term warming trends that are used to maximize human safety and minimize financial impacts. Here we propose a similar framework for the ocean, from physics to fisheries to help ensure sustainable ocean activities while minimizing impacts on protected marine mammals and endangered species. Models at different timescales can vary in predictive skill but also can be designed to meet specific management needs. For example, we have developed nowcasts of species distribution, we are developing forecasts of habitat compression to inform entanglement risk of humpback whales in west coast pot fisheries, alongside century-scale predictions of biodiversity for use in long term planning such as protected area assessment or wind energy siting. These tools can also be used retroactively, as hindcasts have shown that top predators can face up to 30% redistribution of habitat during intense marine heatwaves, yet not all species and heatwaves respond similarly. This potential framework works across a suite of species, prediction scales, and management applications to provide a holistic approach towards marine resource management, with the goal of reducing risk while maximizing opportunity in the face of climate variability and change.