Cancelled – EMES Colloquium Speaker: Giulio Mariotti

Hindcasting and Forecasting Trajectories of Marsh Landscapes

I will present recent improvements in a model (CoastMorpho2D) that simulates marsh morphodynamics. First, I will show how this model can reconstruct (hindcast) marsh trajectories over the last 5000 years. This model will be then used to 1) understand what processes are important for marsh morphodynamics (although neglected or poorly implemented in most models), 2) explain observed marsh area change over the last few centuries (and whether they are caused by changes in sediment supply), 3) forecast marsh morphodynamics in the next few centuries.