The Role of the Stratosphere in Climate and Weather Prediction

The stratosphere consists of about 17% of the mass of Earth’s atmosphere and the ozone it contains plays a key role in shielding the surface from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Its composition and patterns of variability are fundamentally distinct from those in the troposphere which govern surface weather and climate. Nonetheless, work in recent decades has shown that variability in the stratosphere can influence the surface in some surprising and important ways. Much of the work in my group seeks to understand this influence and how it can be used to improve weather prediction and projections of climate change.

In this talk I will provide an overview of the circulation and dynamics of the stratosphere, focusing in particular on the Arctic Polar vortex and the processes that drive dramatic events known as stratospheric sudden warmings.  I’ll then discuss how these events affect surface weather and composition on a variety of timescales ranging from weeks to decades and present an overview of some ongoing projects aimed at better understanding and predicting these surface impacts.

Host: Dr. Jonathan Lees