MS Thesis Defense: Chuxuan Li

The UNC-CH Department of Marine Sciences is proud to present the Master’s Thesis Defense of graduate student, Chuxuan Li. This event will be held on Monday, March 23rd, at 2:30 pm. This event will be held ONLINE ONLY and it will be available live via Zoom (Meeting ID: 789 774 736).

Seminar Title: Variability and predictability of cold-season atmospheric river activity over the North Atlantic

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are conduits of enhanced water vapor transport in the lower troposphere and cause extreme precipitation and flooding events in many regions. This thesis explores the variability and predictability of North Atlantic (NA) AR activity using a set of large-ensemble atmospheric simulations. In the first part, we depict three leading modes governing sea surface temperature-forced variability in AR occurrence frequency via an empirical orthogonal function analysis. We then characterize their spatial structure and temporal evolution, determine their physical mechanisms, and link them to large-scale climate variations. We also identify the respective regions where seasonal AR occurrence has relatively high and low predictability. In the second part, we divide NA ARs into four distinct clusters based on their genesis location and trajectory, and for each cluster identify the large-scale climate modes controlling the year-to-year variations in its population and the regions vulnerable to its induced extreme precipitation and winds.